Maple Leafs vs. Penguins Prediction & Picks - Dec. 23

The Toronto Maple Leafs (15-15-5) will attempt to halt a three-game losing streak when they take on the Pittsburgh Penguins (15-11-9) at home on Tuesday, Dec. 23 at 4 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Ahead of watching this matchup, here's a glimpse at which squad we predict will emerge with the victory in Tuesday's action on the ice.

The Penguins are 2-4-4 in their last 10 games, totaling 27 goals while allowing 38 in that period. On 38 power-play opportunities during that span, they have scored nine goals (23.7%).

Maple Leafs vs. Penguins Predictions for Tuesday

Our computer projection model for this contest expects a final tally of Maple Leafs 4, Penguins 3.

  • Moneyline Pick: Maple Leafs (-131)
  • Total Pick: Over 6 (computer predicts 6.4 goals on average)
  • Spread Pick: Penguins (+1.5)

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Maple Leafs Splits and Trends

  • The Maple Leafs are 4-5-9 in overtime matchups on their way to a 15-15-5 overall record.
  • Toronto has 18 points (7-3-4) in the 14 games it has played that were decided by one goal.
  • In the two games this season the Maple Leafs scored only one goal, they finished 0-1-1.
  • Toronto has taken eight points from the 10 games this season when it scored a pair of goals (3-5-2 record).
  • The Maple Leafs have scored three or more goals 22 times, and are 12-8-2 in those games (to record 26 points).
  • In the 10 games when Toronto has recorded a single power-play goal, it has a 4-4-2 record (10 points).
  • In the 10 games when it outshot its opponent, Toronto is 3-6-1 (seven points).
  • The Maple Leafs have been outshot by opponents 24 times, and went 11-9-4 (26 points).

Penguins Splits and Trends

  • The Penguins have posted a record of 2-9-11 in overtime matchups on their way to an overall mark of 15-11-9.
  • Pittsburgh has earned 10 points (3-3-4) in its 10 games decided by one goal.
  • This season the Penguins scored only one goal in three games and they've earned two points (0-1-2) in those contests.
  • When Pittsburgh has scored exactly two goals this season, they've earned three points (0-4-3 record).
  • The Penguins have earned 34 points in their 22 games with three or more goals scored.
  • Pittsburgh has scored a lone power-play goal in 12 games this season and has recorded nine points from those matchups.
  • When outshooting its opponent this season, Pittsburgh is 5-7-5 (15 points).
  • The Penguins have been outshot by opponents 17 times this season, and earned 22 points in those games.

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Team Stats Comparison

Maple Leafs Rank Maple Leafs AVG Penguins AVG Penguins Rank
12th 3.11 Goals Scored 3.03 15th
25th 3.34 Goals Allowed 3.09 17th
22nd 26.7 Shots 28.4 13th
31st 31.1 Shots Allowed 28.4 20th
32nd 13.33% Power Play % 29.59% 3rd
6th 83.16% Penalty Kill % 80.77% 18th

Maple Leafs vs. Penguins Game Time and TV Channel

  • When: Tuesday, December 23, 2025 at 4 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Live Stream: Watch this match on HBO Max (Regional restrictions may apply)
  • Where: Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario

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